Weekly Outlook

Current Trend Direction: Countering Lower
Risks Favor: Locking
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $100.34

The Jobs Report on Friday of last week came in much stronger than expected with revisions for August and September coming in upwards of 130,000 additional jobs created. More importantly, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in over five years at 4.4%. On a side note, Average Hourly Earnings came in higher than expected at $16.61. That amount is up on the year and is a solid indication of a tightening labor market. In turn, a tightening labor market usually makes its way back to the consumer due to 'wage-based inflation.' All that to say inflation doesn't look as contained as once suggested or believed. Thus, the question remains, will the Fed remain patient or will they raise interest rates the moment they have a chance. The good news is we have some time before the Fed meets again, and eventually things will become more clear cut as to which way they're leaning. Technically, bonds are a little overbought and could factor in on a negative trend that is created.

November 08 Crude Inventories Moderate
November 09 Jobless Claims Moderate
November 09 Balance of Trade Moderate
November 14 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) HIGH
November 14 Producer Price Index (PPI) Moderate
November 14 Retail Sales HIGH
November 14 Retail Sales ex-auto HIGH
November 15 Empire State Index Moderate
November 15 Crude Inventories Moderate
November 15 FOMC Minutes HIGH
November 16 Jobless Claims (Initial) Moderate
November 16 Capacity Utilization Moderate
November 16 Industrial Production Moderate
November 16 Philadelphia Fed Index HIGH
November 16 Consumer Price Index HIGH
November 16 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) HIGH
November 17 Building Permits Moderate
November 17 Housing Permits Moderate
November 17 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Moderate