Weekly Outlook

Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks Favor: 'Staying put'
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $99.91

The Fed Policy Statement is scheduled to be released this Wednesday, in which the Fed Funds Futures propose a 98% chance of "no action." Even so, the overall tone expressed in the minutes will dictate the direction we head this week. It seems as though a slight concern regarding core inflation has developed, especially amongst fed officials. Current core inflation reports show levels considerably above the 2% benchmark that the fed likes to maintain. That being said, most inflation reports are a lagging indicator, which is why the fed will wait to act. If core inflation doesn't start ticking down, come December we may see another rate hike of .25%.


October 25 Existing Home Sales Moderate
October 25 Crude Inventories Moderate
October 25 FOMC Meeting HIGH
October 26 Durable Goods Order Moderate
October 26 Jobless Claims (Initial) Moderate
October 26 New Home Sales Moderate
October 27 GDP Chain Deflator Moderate
October 27 Gross Domestic Product Moderate
October 27 Consumer Sentiment Index(UoM) Moderate
October 30 Personal Income Moderate
October 30 Personal Spending Moderate
October 31 Employment Cost Index HIGH
October 31 Chicago PMI HIGH
October 31 Consumer Confidence Moderate
November 01 ISM Index HIGH
November 01 Crude Inventories Moderate
November 02 Jobless Claims (Initial) Moderate
November 03 Non-Farm Payrolls HIGH
November 03 Unemployment Rate HIGH
November 03 Hourly Earnings HIGH
November 03 Average Work Week HIGH
November 03 ISM Services Index Moderate