Weekly Outlook
Current Trend: Sideways
Risks Favor: Tentatively Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $100.09
We have a full line-up of economic news scheduled for this week, especially when considering the mild week we just experienced. However, we won't hit the beef of the line-up until Thursday when the Retail Sales Report is released. Following that is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Inflation numbers on Friday. Retail sales is a good measurement because it shows the level at which consumers are spending, a great indication as to whether or not people are becomng more tight with their money due to inflation and higher interest rates. Similar is the CPI, which will reveal whether or not prices on a common basket of goods and services are increasing or leveling off.
Bonds will push higher if these numbers seem controlled and inflation contained, to which the Fed will be paying special attention to as well; their next policy decision is rapidly approaching on September 20th. If inflation starts to raise its head once again we could see a return to .25% hike(s). Also, there is an element of surprise in the form of Fed speakers who like to speak freely about inflation levels. Five of them are speaking this week and could prove a difference if what they say is clear enough for traders to react.
From a technical standpoint bonds are positioned in between strong resistance and support levels, thus these reports could be decisive as to which direction bonds end up going. Moreover, bonds are still overbought and could help push matters lower if news come in unfavorable.
Setpember 12 Balance of Trade Moderate
Setpember 13 Crude Inventories Moderate
September 14 Jobless Claims (Initial) Moderate
September 14 Retail Sales High
September 14 Retail Sales ex-auto High
September 15 Consumer Price Index (CPI) High
September 15 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) High
September 15 Empire State Index Moderate
September 15 Capacity Utilization Moderate
September 15 Industrial Production Moderate
September 15 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Moderate
Risks Favor: Tentatively Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $100.09
We have a full line-up of economic news scheduled for this week, especially when considering the mild week we just experienced. However, we won't hit the beef of the line-up until Thursday when the Retail Sales Report is released. Following that is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Inflation numbers on Friday. Retail sales is a good measurement because it shows the level at which consumers are spending, a great indication as to whether or not people are becomng more tight with their money due to inflation and higher interest rates. Similar is the CPI, which will reveal whether or not prices on a common basket of goods and services are increasing or leveling off.
Bonds will push higher if these numbers seem controlled and inflation contained, to which the Fed will be paying special attention to as well; their next policy decision is rapidly approaching on September 20th. If inflation starts to raise its head once again we could see a return to .25% hike(s). Also, there is an element of surprise in the form of Fed speakers who like to speak freely about inflation levels. Five of them are speaking this week and could prove a difference if what they say is clear enough for traders to react.
From a technical standpoint bonds are positioned in between strong resistance and support levels, thus these reports could be decisive as to which direction bonds end up going. Moreover, bonds are still overbought and could help push matters lower if news come in unfavorable.
Setpember 12 Balance of Trade Moderate
Setpember 13 Crude Inventories Moderate
September 14 Jobless Claims (Initial) Moderate
September 14 Retail Sales High
September 14 Retail Sales ex-auto High
September 15 Consumer Price Index (CPI) High
September 15 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) High
September 15 Empire State Index Moderate
September 15 Capacity Utilization Moderate
September 15 Industrial Production Moderate
September 15 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Moderate
posted by Capital Financial Network at 12:14 PM
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